The objective of the Plurinational Bayes Association is to promote Bayesian Methods in Plurinational America and the Global South across all empirical sciences (data-driven), from physics and social sciences to artificial intelligence and health sciences.
The rules of probability, proposed at the end of the 18th century and adopted since then as a reasoning system across all data-driven sciences, allow us to reach truths (maximize certainty given the available information) as new data is acquired.
The rules of reasoning are conceptually intuitive.
The product rule (or conditional probability) updates belief distributions while preserving prior belief (prior information) that remains compatible with the new information (data).
And the sum rule (or marginal probability) predicts yet-to-be-observed events by incorporating the contribution of all alternative (mutually exclusive) hypotheses.
Although no better practical reasoning system for contexts of uncertainty has been proposed during this time, the strict application of the rules of probability (or Bayesian approach) has historically been limited due to the computational cost required to evaluate the entire hypothesis space.
For this reason, throughout the 20th century, numerous criteria were proposed to avoid the computational cost by selecting a single hypothesis from the space.
It was not until the dawn of the 21st century that it became generally feasible to approximate optimal belief distributions given the available information across all fields of science.
To achieve its objective, Plurinational Bayes organizes annual interdisciplinary events, both in-person and/or virtual, focused on the methodological aspects required to properly evaluate alternative hypotheses.
